Contained in this folder are all materials necessary to replicate the results in “(Nuclear) Change of Plans: What Explains Nuclear Reversal?” In addition to this text file, there are 4 datasets, and 2 R scripts.

Overview

The R script titled “Rcode_Replication” contains all the code necessary to replicate the statistical results in the paper as well as all figures in the paper. The R script calls the dataset “use_rep.dta,” for this analysis. Please be sure to keep these files in the same folder to ensure that the R script calls the dataset without issue.

The second R script titled “Rcode_Replication_Appendix” contains all the code necessary to replicate all of the statistical results presented in the online Appendix. These results primarily rely on the “use_rep.dta” dataset used for the primary analysis in the paper. However, the replication file for the appendix also calls each of the 3 other datasets, which are used for robustness checks in the appendix. Specifically, “useWAY1_rep.dta” contains the sample of cases used to estimate Table 6 in the appendix, “useWAY1Ex_rep.dta” contains the sample of cases used to estimate Table 7 in the appendix, and “usetv_npt_REP.dta” is a time-varying version of the data contained in “ues_rep.dta” and is used to estimate Table 17 in the appendix. As with the previous R script, please ensure that all files are contained within the same folder so that the code may call the appropriate dataset to estimate all of the models.

Variable List and Sources 

nuk7set1: Nuclear Latency Index (0-7). Source: Jo and Gartzke 2007.

npt_eff: Number of NPT members as a proportion of states in the world. Source: Jo and Gartzke 2007.

lmid_past5yrs Number of MIDs in the past 5 years, logged. Source: MIDs.

neopatr: Dummy, 1 if a neopatrimonial regime is in place (following Montgomery 2010 for operationalization). Source: Polity IV.

nucriv: Dummy, 1 if at least one rival possesses nuclear weapons. Source: Bleek and Lorber (2014).

nucsecguart:Defensive alliance with US or USSR/Russia  (following Bleek and Lorber (2014) for operationalization). Source: ATOP.

civass: civil nuclear assistance dummy (as coded in Kroenig 2009). Source: Bleek and Lorber (2014).

latency1: dummy variable that assumes the value of 1 the presence of enrichment facilities. Source: Fuhrmann and Tkach. 2015 .

polity1yd: dummy variable that assumes the value of 1 if the state's combined polity score changes by an absolute value of 3 or more over a one year period. Source: Polity IV.

polity2yd: dummy variable that assumes the value of 1 if the state's combined polity score changes by an absolute value of 3 or more over a two year period. Source: Polity IV.

polity5yd: dummy variable that assumes the value of 1 if the state's combined polity score changes by an absolute value of 3 or more over a three year period. Source: Polity IV.

nuk7set1_glsd: annual standard deviation in the nuk7set1 variable. Source: see nuk7set1.

pressure: level of superpower pressure on a potential proliferator to reverse course: strong (2), mixed (1), or not detectable (0). Source: Coe and Vaynman 2015

npt_dum: dummy variable, 1 if post 1967, 0 otherwise.

References:

Bleek, Philipp and Eric Lorber. 2014. “Security Guarantees and Allied Nuclear Proliferation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(3):429–454. 
Coe, Andrew and Jane Vaynman. 2015. “Collusion and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime.” Journal of Politics 77(4):983–997 
Fuhrmann, Matthew and Benjamin Tkach. 2015. “Almost Nuclear: Introducing the Nuclear Latency Dataset.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 32(4):443–461. 
Jo, D.J. and Erik Gartzke. 2007. “Determinants of nuclear weapons proliferation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51(1):167–194. 
Marshall, Monty G and Keith Jaggers. 2002. “Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2002.” 
Palmer, Glenn, Vito D’Orazio, Michael Kenwick and Matthew Lane. 2015. “The MID4 dataset, 2002–2010.” Conflict Management and Peace Science pp. 35–50. 






